Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 11.120487 12.736006 14.471240 16.469733 18.703815 21.120200 23.927294
2025-11-23 8.513761 10.661631 13.146182 16.216683 19.892167 24.132558 29.375670
2025-11-30 7.331933 9.722663 12.621296 16.364526 21.037161 26.641871 33.833620
2025-12-07 6.544056 9.134840 12.410185 16.806414 22.497509 29.555532 38.901670
2025-12-14 5.694703 8.330387 11.791201 16.599928 23.029068 31.239451 42.413311
2025-12-21 4.824648 7.388232 10.880523 15.897040 22.812961 31.892302 44.569233
2025-12-28 4.469628 7.114902 10.831704 16.320680 24.082110 34.504564 49.363043
2026-01-04 4.123176 6.811531 10.701834 16.599368 25.138901 36.850235 53.870970
2026-01-11 3.713536 6.367700 10.323222 16.477097 25.598293 38.367197 57.275389
2026-01-18 3.347498 5.951913 9.945363 16.314767 25.967780 39.746794 60.513292
2026-01-25 3.065463 5.640577 9.696279 16.317048 26.560197 41.446336 64.246740
2026-02-01 2.849055 5.414929 9.559069 16.472503 27.375030 43.483755 68.525191
2026-02-08 2.602865 5.120126 9.295306 16.420821 27.884204 45.114715 72.312990
2026-02-15 2.362238 4.811236 8.983286 16.267102 28.219406 46.491553 75.770775
2026-02-22 2.195328 4.616815 8.844314 16.379137 28.966661 48.505254 80.238147
2026-03-01 2.100471 4.546357 8.911076 16.834825 30.283300 51.440025 86.208909
2026-03-08 1.910440 4.274798 8.601616 16.623197 30.484656 52.624005 89.494433
2026-03-15 1.669932 3.878335 8.034664 15.921144 29.821054 52.392663 90.530718
2026-03-22 1.604289 3.828572 8.100961 16.344711 31.081933 55.298310 96.639144
2026-03-29 1.524732 3.741755 8.089854 16.623988 32.101050 57.838683 102.233892
2026-04-05 1.403525 3.553604 7.869369 16.501475 32.405906 59.203030 105.952130
2026-04-12 1.288628 3.366946 7.636739 16.338966 32.625920 60.424501 109.463507
2026-04-19 1.200883 3.231937 7.496407 16.341240 33.137237 62.148499 113.853260